You also need to know your fatigue resistance, lactate threshold, fueling capabilities, not to mention the course, race vibes, and weather, to name a few. There are a lot of variables that go into training for a marathon that go beyond speed and endurance. But to be honest, most of these are very inaccurate and misleading. If you search for “how to predict my marathon time” a lot of “tricks” will show up including overly simplified workouts and marathon time prediction calculators.

The truth is while there is no crystal ball that can predict marathon times, there are signs in your training that can help you determine what time it will take you to run a marathon. Related: How to Prepare for Your Marathon (Thank goodness they didn’t ditch me after this!) I feel certain it was obnoxious and annoying. I repeatedly asked my husband, my running friends, and my running coach. I remember in my marathon build in 2019 when I was trying to qualify for the Olympic Trials, I began to pester anyone who knew anything about my running what they thought-could I do it? Could I run a sub-2:45 marathon time? There are clues in your training that help you predict your marathon time. Yet, in the heart of my marathon training cycle, I find myself starting to obsess over trying to predict my marathon time. But then, what fun would that be? Part of not knowing how we will perform in our marathon is part of what draws us.

Ahh, don’t we all wish we could have a crystal ball that was a marathon time predictor.

Download calculating half marathon pace